Leonard’s Losers
Back when I was in graduate school, one of my favorite radio
shows was Leonard’s Losers.
Leonard Postero treated his fans each week to his prediction of the outcomes of
college football games coming up that Saturday. However, unlike other sports pundits, Leonard picked the losers, not the winners. This had resonance to me because I was constantly losing in the football
pools that circulated around the psych department each week. Sadly, Leonard was broadcast
on Saturday mornings, days after the pools closed. I still enjoyed it though. Here’s a taste of his down home prognostications:
In honor of Leonard, who died in 2001, I want to write about my prediction for
the Alabama special election coming up next month. Here’s what I think is at play:
Need for Cognition
Need for cognition is the notion that some of us like to
give our brains a workout every now and then.
It means we’re willing to put some effort into thinking.
Typically, we don’t do this all the time. Too much work. That means the need to engage our brains is
balanced against a reluctance to waste brain power, a reluctance called the
Cognitive Miser. How much effort, after all, do you want to spend on deciding on
the old reliable Oscar Mayer bacon or the supermarket brand selling for 25 cents
less? The Cognitive Miser would say, “Not much effort. Pick something and move
on.”
The Alabama special election presents a special case. Ordinarily,
voters in this deep red state would automatically pick the Republican
candidate. Job done; get back to the bacon. But this time,
things are different. The Republican,
Roy Moore, appears to be deeply flawed. However,
his opponent, Doug Jones, is a Democrat, and unacceptable by definition. Will
the voters tell the Cognitive Miser to back off while they give some real
thought to the election? I think not,
because when it comes to politics, conservatives are more likely to engage in
that short term, intuitive thinking (“Pick the Republican already.”) than
liberals are.
Loyalty
Conservatives are much more loyal to their tribe or group
than liberals are. According to political psychologist Chris Mooney,
“Belonging to a group provides epistemic closure—a much desired sense of certainty, because you adopt that group’s views and membership in it provides you with a sense of stability and belonging.” Psychology Today
Here, their group is the GOP, which also suggests that Alabamans
will cast their ballots for the Republican
So my fearless prognostication is that voters in the Heart of Dixie will hold
their noses and send Judge Roy Moore to the US Senate.
Leonard's Losers? The American people.
Edited to add: Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore by about 22,000 votes - around 1.5%. Obviously, my
ability to predict the voting behavior of Alabamans is just about as
good as my ability to predict the outcome of football games!
