10/13/16

Living in the bubble Part III

When prophecy fails

Back in the 1950s, a Chicago housewife named Dorothy Martin became convinced she was in contact with aliens from the planet Clarion. They told her that the world would be destroyed in a great flood on December 21^st, 1954.

Gograph

She gathered around her a number of true believers who got rid of their possessions, left their spouses, and quit their jobs in anticipation of the end of the world. On the night in question, they convened at her house to await their midnight transportation to a flying saucer, which would save them from the deluge later that day.

Unknown to the group, their numbers included social psychologist Leon Festinger and his colleagues, who had secretly infiltrated the cult and joined them for their late night vigil.  Here’s what Festinger said happened as the clock ticked down:

•   December 20. The group expects a visitor from outer space to call upon them at midnight and to escort them to a waiting spacecraft. As instructed, the group goes to great lengths to remove all metallic items from their persons. As midnight approaches, zippers, bra straps, and other objects are discarded. The group waits.

•   12:05 am, December 21. No visitor. Someone in the group notices that another clock in the room shows 11:55. The group agrees that it is not yet midnight.

•   12:10 am. The second clock strikes midnight. Still no visitor. The group sits in stunned silence. The cataclysm itself is no more than seven hours away.

•   4:00 am. The group has been sitting in stunned silence. A few attempts at finding explanations have failed. Martin begins to cry.

•   4:45 am. Another message by automatic writing is sent to Martin. It states, in effect, that the God of Earth has decided to spare the planet from destruction. The cataclysm has been called off: "The little group, sitting all night long, had spread so much light that God had saved the world from destruction." (Wikipedia)

Because of their public commitment to the apocalypse, because they had taken irrevocable steps to prepare for it, and because it didn’t happen, they were forced into cognitive dissonance, the brutal collision between belief and reality. Which they resolved by deciding that their prayers had changed God’s plan.

I think that something similar will happen at Trump HQ on Election Night, 2016.

Consider Trump and his Breitbart alt.right conspiracy clan.  As of this date, mid-October, they are still saying that Trump is ahead in the polls. He’s not, not even in the charmingly weird LA Times/USC poll. If the trend continues, they will lose in November and possibly lose big.  But they will never own it. They can’t. Like Martin’s doomsday cult, they have been too sure, too public in their insistence that they are right. Plus, Trump never owns any of his failures. Finally, many of Trump’s supporters have confined themselves to fringe sites that are giving them bad data. They will not see this coming.  

Unlike Martin's group, though, sweetness and light and heavenly mercy are probably not on their agenda. Instead, Trump (and campaign CEO Steve Bannon) will undoubtedly blame it on some elitist global conspiracy or on Paul Ryan or, my bet, on massive voter fraud.  And it will get uglier from there.

That’s my own doomsday prediction.

ETA: My cousin Michael believes that Trump's ultimate plan is to set up his own TV network or cable channel and rake in more millions by milking the angst of his frustrated followers. Stay tuned.