1/25/17

Does size really matter?

Back in the 1950s, social psychologist Solomon Asch asked a bunch of Swarthmore students a simple question: Which of the three lines on the right is the same length as the line on the left?

Under ordinary conditions, almost everyone got the right answer.  But Asch wasn’t interested in ordinary conditions; he was interested in conformity.  So in an alternate condition, he set up the room like this:

Six of those seven men were stooges who’d been primed in advance.  Answering out loud, each gave the same, obviously wrong choice.  The seventh man was then asked his opinion.  Would he conform and select an answer he KNEW was wrong to go along with the crowd? Or would he remain strong and independent?  As Asch had predicted, a third (32%) of his subjects gave the conforming answer rather than disagree with the crowd.  A third. 

Yesterday, The Washington Post published the results of a little study of their own. LINK

"On Sunday and Monday, we surveyed 1,388 American adults. We showed half of them a crowd picture from each inauguration (see below) and asked which was from Trump’s inauguration and which was from Obama’s. As you might expect, 40% of the Trump voters gave the wrong answer compared to 8% of Clinton voters. "  

Then the Post asked the other half of their sample, “Which picture has more people?”  Got that? Which picture has more people?  15% of Trump voters said the picture on the left had more people compared to 2% of Clinton voters. Fifteen percent denied the evidence right before their eyes. Shades of Solomon Asch.

The Post concluded that people probably didn’t actually believe their wrong answer but were compelled to make it to keep their behavior in line with their belief in Trump.  While I agree that these Trump voters had skin in the game and answered in a way that aligned with their previous beliefs, I also think that conformity was in play.  

Keep in mind that Clinton voters are not immune from this. However, research has found that conservatives conform more than moderates who conform more than liberals. For example, this study was conceptually similar to Asch’s but used a word task rather than a visual task. 

So what does this mean for the future?  I predict that when Trump’s investigation of alleged voter fraud finds only small, unsystematic results, a chunk of Trump voters won’t believe it.  They can’t, because it would mean their guy was lying when he said he won the popular vote.  

It also means that this same chunk will continue to deny the evidence of their own eyes and good sense if it contradicts their strongly held beliefs. 

 

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